A = 97 K = 9

 

Super Solar Storms May Not Be So Rare

 

Click on the image for a clearer view

Yesterday's Washington Post had a good story about large solar storms.  We are all aware of the Carrington Event (September 1859) but there were others.  The Japanese painting above depicts an event of February 4, 1872.   

From the Washington Post article: 

Around 11:30 p.m. on Feb. 4, 1872, the sky above Jacobabad suddenly brightened, as if a portal to heaven had opened. A passerby watched in amazement and terror, while a pet dog became motionless, then trembled. The godly glow morphed, from red to bright blue to deep violet, until morning.

Electric communication cables mysteriously glitched in the Mediterranean, around Lisbon and Gibraltar, London and India. Confused telegraph operators in Cairo reported issues in sending messages to Khartoum. One incoming message asked what was the big red glow on the horizon — a fire or a faraway explosion?

This of course reminded me of the event that I witnessed as a teenager in New York in 1972: 

 https://soldersmoke.blogspot.com/2009/09/carrington-flares-aurora-where-were-you.html  

That post has resulted in a steady stream of comments, mostly from non-hams.  Apparently people remember seeing the event, then search the web for clues as to what it was.  Google brings them to that post on the SolderSmoke Daily News.  The comments are usually along the lines of, "Wow!  I saw it too!"  Very cool.  

The Carrington Event and the Current Solar Cycle (Solar Max "Sooner and Stronger")

 

From the article: 

"Sunspot activity has increased dramatically in early 2023, with sunspot numbers far exceeding NASA's predictions each month — though nothing as big as Carrington’s sunspots have been seen yet. Still, the profusion of sunspots and other solar weather suggests that the next solar maximum will arrive sooner and stronger than NASA previously predicted. Whether the incoming maximum brings with it a Carrington-level storm is a matter of pure chance — but scientists will keep watching for spotty signs on the sun, just in case."

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/see-monster-sunspot-launched-carrington-120000667.html

WIRED on the Dangers of another Carrington Event, Solar Cycle 25, Capacitors Could Save Us All

This Wired article has some really interesting info on competing theories about the solar cycle, about the danger to the Earth from solar flares, and about what a flare like that of the Carrington event could do to the transformers we are currently using.  The article points out that large capacitors could protect these transformers from the effects of the flare.  But the power companies are not installing the capacitors. 

I think one of the scientists Pete mentioned in SolderSmoke podcast #238 is mentioned here: 

https://www.wired.com/story/sun-storm-end-civilization/?redirectURL=https://www.wired.com/story/sun-storm-end-civilization/

The (Real) Solar Flare of August 1972 in Cixin Liu's Science Fiction

 

A view of McMath Region 11976 from the Paris Observatory early on 4 August 1972. 

I have a vivid memory of seeing -- as a kid -- Aurora from our home near New York City.  Eric Carlsen, my childhood friend and colleague from the Waters Edge Rocket Research Society,  told me his mom had similar memories. A while back I did some Googling and concluded that it had to have been the monster solar flare of  August 1972:

 https://soldersmoke.blogspot.com/2009/09/carrington-flares-aurora-where-were-you.html    

That blog post got about eight comments, mostly from other folks with similar memories -- they apparently were led to my blog by the same kind of memory-based Googling that I had done. 

This year, on Christmas Eve, Elisa and I were flying home from the Dominican Republic. I was reading (on my phone) "To Hold Up the Sky," an anthology of Cixin Liu's science fiction short-stories.   I'd read his excellent "Three body Problem" in the Dominican Republic back in December 2017.   His work is usually "hard" sic-fi, with a strong connection to real physics.

One of the short stories in the anthology is entitled "Full Spectrum Barrage Jamming." Wow, I thought, that one is really promises to be very interesting for a radio amateur.  I turned out that it was more interesting than I expected. 

I won't spoil the story for you.  Suffice it to say that Cixin Liu makes reference to the same August 1972 solar flare that I remember from my childhood, and discusses its effect on radio propagation.  It was really kind of eerie to be in that plane, flying over the Bahamas, reading Chi-Fi on my I-phone, and seeing the author reference that memorable event from 1972.  TRGHS. 

There were plans to turn this story into a movie: https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/wandering-earth-producer-to-film-another-liu-cixin-novel

Here is an excellent article describing what happened back in 1972: https://room.eu.com/article/lessons-from-the-sun.   The August 1972 flare was so strong that it caused U.S. Navy anti-ship mines to explode in Haiphong harbor in Vietnam. 

Where is Sunspot Cycle 25?

The other day I was complaining to Pete N6QW that 17 meters still seems to be in very poor shape.  I can hear 6Y6Y around mid day, but I don't often hear Europeans.  I did year my friend Mike EI0CL yesterday on 17, but conditions were not good.  Pete asked, "Where is Cycle 25?"  Good question. The Space Weather Center has the answer.  

Their Solar Cycle Progression page is up-to-date.  With the slider below each chart you can go back as far as 1750.  Check out Cycle 19.  I was born near the peak (TRGHS).  Pete was on the air during that cycle. Cycle 23 also looked pretty good. I was out in the Azores then (2000-2003) -- no wonder I could work VK and ZL with a 5 watt DSB rig.  

I like the little solar conditions widget that has appeared in the left hand column of this page, and I am grateful to the provider,  but the widget just doesn't update regularly.  So I think I'm going to switch to a link from the Space Weather Prediction Center that shows the numbers we really need: Solar Flux Index (SFI), Sunspot Number (SN), A index, K index.  (Please let me know what you think about this change.) 

Here is the link to the Solar Cycle Progression Charts (be sure to use the sliders):  

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

Cosmic Rays, Bit Flips, and Computer Vulnerability

Here is a very interesting video about a problem that many of us have been blissfully unaware. 

You can see the role played by the solar cycle.  This is the subject of some on-going research by the folks who put out the SpaceWeather.com web site.  They have been flying balloons to measure high altitude cosmic rays: 

I've been meaning to build a cloud chamber for a long time.  I recently discovered that my local 

supermarket sells dry ice... 

Thanks to Dave, K8WPE for alerting us to this video.  

Good News! The Termination Event May Be Coming Soon! Solar Cycle 25 Could Rival Cycle 19!

Wow.  Cycle 25 might be as good or better than Cycle 19.  Pete cut his radio teeth on Cycle 19.  I was born during that cycle.  Let's hope these scientists are right!  See chart below. 

https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2021/06/11/the-termination-event/

Thanks to Thomas over at SWLing Post for alerting us to this important news.   

SolderSmoke Podcast #226 The U.S. Election, Solar Cycle, uSDX, Hermes, HP8640B, SGC 600 Sig Gen, HA-600A, Mailbag

SolderSmoke Podcast # 226  

http://soldersmoke.com/soldersmoke226.mp3

----------------------------------

About the U.S. election

------------------------------------

Mars:  Setting early, will have to shift to evening observation.  Weather has been poor. 

Sunspot Cycle 25 is underway -- SFI 78, SN 32  

The Gliessberg cycle

Pete's Bench:  #49,  #50,  uSDX,  Hermes Lite

Bill's Bench: HP8640B,  Global Specialties Corp 6000 counter, Lafayette HA600A.

MAILBAG:

Peter VK2EMU Sent me copy of 1947 Handbook.  Thanks Peter

Brad W1BCC Spotted 10 S-38s for 80 bucks on Craig’s list.  What’s going on here? 

Dale K9NN sent both Pete and I care packages with very cool part, including DG Mosfets

Stuart ZL2TW sent me Les Moxon’s Antenna Book.  TRGHS. Moxon will be back! 

Alvin N5VZH got his receive converter with a little Tribal Knowledge from SS. 

GM4OOU The Bitsy DSB rig from Scotland

Peter VK3YE DSBto DC incompatibility SOLVED

Paul VK3HN's Digital SWR and Power Meter and Low band AM TX VFO/Controller FB Videos. 

VK2BLQ alerts us to article about Jac Holzman of Elektra Records. 

AA0ZZ great message on assembler language and writing software the hard way. 

Solar Cycle 25 - The Gleissberg Cycle Dashes Hopes for a Big Solar Max

 

In our last podcast Pete N6QW expressed pessimism about Solar Cycle 25.   I pushed back, asking Pete to stop with the negative vibes.  Well, as always, it turns out that Pete was right. 

Hack-A-Day today has a nice post about solar activity.  They note that cycle 25 is likely to be much like cycle 24 -- not great, certainly not as great as cycle 19.  Pete operated during that magnificent event -- I was born during cycle 19 -- TRGHS.  

While Pete was right about the poor prospects for cycle 25, I doubt that he knew WHY it will be so tepid.  Well friends, here is something else for us to worry about:  THE GLEISSBERG CYCLE.  This one is not 11 years long.  It is 87 years long and we are in the declining phase right now. So apparently it will be future generations of ham radio operators who will experience sunspots like those of 1959.  Curse you Gleissberg cycle!  

But I suppose it is better to light one candle than to curse the darkness.   Cycle 25 maximum is only about five years away.  So I'm thinking of rebuilding my Moxon.   Or maybe getting a Hex beam... 

The South Atlantic Anomaly in Earth's Magnetic Field

In case you've grown tired of worrying about infectious disease, here's another scientific problem for you to worry about:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpdQcw_52iM

NOAA Prediction for Solar Cycle 25

A peak sunspot number of 115 might seem paltry, until you remember that we are at ZERO now. 

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-25-forecast-update

Minimalist Masochism at Solar Minima -- But More Contacts with the ET-2

Dylan Thoams

  "Rage, rage against the dying of the light" 

I thought of that line from Dylan Thomas's poem when I read on G3XBM's web site that we are kind of at the very bottom of the solar cycle.  Roger wrote on 22 October: "Solar flux is 64 and the SSN 0. A=5 and K=0. As far as I am aware this is the lowest solar flux this solar minimum."   

I also thought of this as I pounded brass (Indian brass!) in an effort to make a few more contacts with my ET-2 two transistor rig.  Obviously venturing forth on 40 meters with just TWO transistors (one for transmit and one for receive) and crystal control AT SOLAR MINIMA is not for the faint of heart.  It is almost a Dylan-esque act of defiance. 

I have had to resort to please for help on the DX Summit, the SolderSmoke blog and the SKCC Schedule page.  Fortunately for me, the brotherhood has sprung to my support.  

W1PID (who gave me contact #3) also gave me contact #4 on 21 October. 

W4KAC in Hickory NC was contact #5.  This was on 22 October.  This was the only marginal contact so far.  He was running 5 W into an end fed half wave. 

Yesterday was a big day for the ET-2. I had two solid contacts: 

#6 was N2VGA in New York UPDATE:  Larry N2VGA confirmed by e-mail that this was a "random" contact -- not the result of my on-line pleas for assistance.  He just heard my CQ and responded.  FB.  

#7 was K4CML in Newport News, Va.  He switched to QRP himself at 2.5 watts for a nice 2X QRP contact. 

Looking at my Rigol 'scope, I now think I'm putting out about 150 milliwatts.  Not bad for a single J310.  I may have to invest in a heat sink.

40 seems most cooperative in the morning (around 0930 local) and again in the afternoon (around 1630 local). 

Thanks to all who have helped.  I will try to make a few more. 

The First Sunspots of Cycle 25 -- Explained by Space Weather Woman (Video)

Dr. Tamitha Skov explains how Cycle 25 has begun while Cycle 24 is not quite finished. 
She has a very clear way of presenting the space weather.  Very useful. 

YouTube site: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkXjdDQ-db0xz8f4PKgKsag

SolderSmoke Podcast #208

SolderSmoke Podcast #208 is available: 

http://soldersmoke.com/soldersmoke208.mp3

15 December 2018

Pete and the California fires
Bill goes to Brooklyn
2 meter simplex
A return of the trivial electric motor
Audio from Mars
HF Conditions -- a real mixed bag

Pete looks back at 2018 -- The Year of the SSB Transceiver -- Lessons Learned

Hans Summers, the QSX and the virtues of SDR
W7ZOI's DC Receiver Retrospective
The 1972 Solar Flare and the Vietnam War

SHAMELESS COMMERCE:  Buy your gifts through the Amazon link to the upper right. 
Consider SolderSmoke the book as a gift.  Visit Pasta Pete's for cooking ideas. 

Don't Build It!   Sage -- but unexpected -- advice from Pete. 

Straight Key Night approaches. 

Book Reviews:  
--"What is Real?"  (Quantum Physics)
-- RHdb by K6LHA.

Movies
"Bohemian Rhapsody" 
"First Man" (Not yet!)

MAILBAG: 
Steve G0FUW
Ed KC8SBV 

1972 Solar Flare Caused Naval Mines to Explode

There are reports out this morning that a big solar flare in 1972 caused naval mines placed by the U.S. off the coast of Vietnam to explode.  

https://www.livescience.com/64062-mines-solar-storm-1972-vietnam.html

https://www.colorado.edu/today/2018/11/12/1972-solar-storm-triggered-vietnam-war-mystery

Background info: 

https://oraprdnt.uqtr.uquebec.ca/pls/public/docs/GSC418/F1929448428_Solar_Superstorm__Astronomy_Sept_2008.pdf

I remember this solar event.  It caused aurora near New York City: 

https://soldersmoke.blogspot.com/2009/09/carrington-flares-aurora-where-were-you.html

A Bleak Outlook for Sunspots

Chris Trask N7ZWY posted a very interesting sunspot graph on G-QRP:

http://www.home.earthlink.net/~christrask/Solar%20Activity%201600-2100.pdf

The relationship to the orbits of the outer planets is especially intriguing.  

40 is the new 17 my friends.  And 160 is looking good. 

SolderSmoke Podcast #174:Belthorn III, BITX20(-40), Parasites, Test Gear, Hamfest, SPRAT, Flares, BITX History

SolderSmoke Podcast #174 is available:

http://soldersmoke.com/soldersmoke174.mp3

March 28, 2015

Happy Arduino Day!
Pete's Belthorn III Transceiver (with cool color display)
Bill's BITX 20 (that used to be a BITX20/40)
AD9850 DDS added to Barebones Superhet
Jean Shepherd on Parasitic Oscillations, Obsession, and Madness
Simple Test Gear for the Homebrewer
Digital Oscilloscopes and their amazing capabilities
Dongles and other great stuff in SPRAT 162
The BIG St. Patrick's Day Solar Flare
VK6MV's Amazing Rhombic (+)
VK7XX (Dos Equis!)
A Bit of BITX History
Pete going KX3 QRO


Our book: "SolderSmoke -- Global Adventures in Wireless Electronics" http://soldersmoke.com/book.htm Our coffee mugs, T-Shirts, bumper stickers: http://www.cafepress.com/SolderSmoke Our Book Store: http://astore.amazon.com/contracross-20

Working VK6 Homebrew During the Big Solar Flare

There I was. 0900 UTC (0 Dark Thirty local),  the morning after the big March 17 St. Patrick's Day Coronal Mass Ejection Impact.  Solar Flux Index: 116.  A Index: 117!  I'd never seen the A Index that high.  When I got home from work on  March 17,  I had turned on the BITX 20 and heard nothing but white noise.  No signals.  Nada.  Zilch. So the following morning my expectations for 20 were quite low.  I tuned across the whole band, again hearing nothing.  But wait... there was one signal.  And he was calling CQ.  With an Australian accent.  VK6MV!  The only signal on the band.  I called him with my recently fixed BITX20 (with .12 kW amp) and a dipole.  No problem. We had a nice contact.
A look at Roy's QRZ page shows that he is a fellow homebrewer.  Clearly, the radio gods were making a statement here.   

Our book: "SolderSmoke -- Global Adventures in Wireless Electronics" http://soldersmoke.com/book.htm Our coffee mugs, T-Shirts, bumper stickers: http://www.cafepress.com/SolderSmoke Our Book Store: http://astore.amazon.com/contracross-20

Interesting Propagation Web Site

CONUS HF BAND CONDX

1/22/15 --- 10:45:00 GMT --- REPORT # 1289

160 80 40 30 20 15 10

I think this is a really interesting and useful way to gather and present information on propagation conditions.   Check it out.   The "instructions" page gives some background info on the technique used. 

http://www.bandconditions.com/ 

The author, Biz, K5BIZ seems like a very FB ham: http://www.qrz.com/db/K5BIZ

Our book: "SolderSmoke -- Global Adventures in Wireless Electronics" http://soldersmoke.com/book.htm Our coffee mugs, T-Shirts, bumper stickers: http://www.cafepress.com/SolderSmoke Our Book Store: http://astore.amazon.com/contracross-20